The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has warned that the UK economy could shrink by 35% this quarter due to the COVID-19 crisis.

The OBR said that the outcome was modelled on an assumption that the current lockdown would last for three months. It stated that a three-month lockdown followed by three months of partial restrictions would trigger an economic decline of 35.1% in the quarter to June alone.

The lockdown would push up the UK’s borrowing bill to an estimated £273 billion this financial year, or 14% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

However, the OBR said extra spending by the Treasury to support the economy was crucial to limit economic damage.

The OBR’s estimate followed a global economic forecast published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which predicted a 3% contraction in global growth.

Rain Newton-Smith, Chief Economist at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), said:

‘This makes for bleak reading and stresses the need for the right policies to support our economy through this crisis. The need for co-ordinated global action to rebuild confidence has rarely been greater.

‘The government will also need to work with businesses and many parts of civil society here at home to create a plan to revive the economy once the lockdown is lifted.’

Internet link: OBR press release

The Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) has suggested that government borrowing may rise to £300 billion in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The think tank has been working to estimate the cost of the COVID-19 crisis to the government’s finances, and has incorporated official data from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

The CPS’s COVID-19 counter has put forward an estimated £127 billion in direct bailout costs and £119 million in indirect costs, such as lower tax revenue. The data is based on the OBR’s three-month lockdown scenario, followed by three months of ‘looser restrictions’.

The CPS stated that, when these estimated costs are added to the £55 billion of borrowing already forecast for 2020, a deficit of £301 billion is produced. This represents 15% of GDP.

Robert Colvile, Director of the CPS, said:

‘The government has acted throughout this crisis to save lives and protect livelihoods. But while it is clear to everyone that extraordinary times require extraordinary measures, they also incur extraordinary costs.

‘It is vital to get the most accurate possible picture of the burden the government is taking on in order to assess the full scale of the rebuilding that lies ahead.’

Internet link: CPS press release

On 6 April changes were made so that if a UK resident sells a residential property in the UK, they now have 30 days to tell HMRC and pay any money owed.

The seller must submit a standalone tax return covering the CGT, which can no longer be included as part of a self assessment return.

Failure to tell HMRC about any CGT within 30 days of completion may incur a penalty, as well as interest on the sum owed.

HMRC stated:

‘To help those selling properties familiarise themselves with the change in the rules and a new online process, HMRC is allowing a period of time to adjust and will not issue late filing penalties for CGT payment on account returns received late up to and including 31 July 2020.

‘For UK residents, this means transactions completed between 6 April and 30 June 2020 and reported up to 31 July 2020. Transactions completed from 1 July 2020 onwards will receive a late filing penalty if they are not reported within 30 calendar days.

‘Interest will accrue if the tax remains unpaid after 30 days.’

Internet link: HMRC guidance

On 4 May 2020 the government launched a micro loan scheme for small businesses as it continues to try and mitigate the economic damage caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown.

The Bounce Back Loan Scheme allows small businesses adversely affected by COVID-19 to apply for up to £50,000, with the government guaranteeing 100% of the advance.

Businesses can apply for a minimum of £2,000, up to a maximum of £50,000 with the government paying the interest for the first 12 months.

Businesses will be able to access the loans through the existing network of accredited lenders and the government said it expects most applications to be approved within 24 hours.

Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, said:

‘I know that some small businesses are still struggling to access credit.

‘They are, in many ways, the most exposed businesses to the impact of the coronavirus, and often find it harder to access credit in the first place.

‘If we want to benefit from their dynamism and entrepreneurial spirit as we recover our economy, they will need extra support to get through the crisis.

‘Some businesses will not want to take on more debt, which is why our focus has been on cash grants, tax cuts and tax deferrals. But for others, loans will be part of the answer.’

Internet link: GOV.UK publications

Financial regulators have requested a moratorium on corporate financial reports for at least two weeks. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has been communicating with the Financial Reporting Council (FRC) and the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) about a package of measures to ‘reinforce trust in the reporting system’.

These will be aimed at ensuring companies and their auditors take the necessary time to prepare appropriate disclosures and address current practical challenges. The FCA says that it is vital that investors can rely on trustworthy information from companies.

However, the FCA added that recent unprecedented events mean that the basis on which companies are reporting and planning is changing rapidly. Consequently, the regulators say companies must give due consideration to the fast-moving coronavirus crisis, and previous timetables may not give them necessary time to do this.

In a statement on 26 March, the FRC said it ‘encourages listed companies and their auditors to consider carefully whether they should delay other corporate reports for the next two weeks, such as interim financial statements and final audited financial statements, except where necessary to meet a legal or regulatory requirement’.

Internet link: FCA press release