The UK economy shrank for the second month in a row in October, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Official figures showed a 0.1% drop in gross domestic product (GDP) for October. The economy had been expected to return to growth following a fall during September.

However, the ONS said that activity had stalled or declined, with pubs, restaurants and retail among the sectors reporting weak months.

David Bharier, Head of Research at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), said:

‘With growth of just 0.1% in the three months to October and an unexpected fall in the monthly GDP, the UK economy was already fragile ahead of recent policy announcements.

‘The full impact of the Budget since then is yet to be seen. However, our research has already shown a spike in anxiety over tax and employment policy. Many businesses are telling us that increased costs are likely to have an impact on their investment and recruitment plans. Firms of all shapes and sizes are facing tough decisions in early 2025.

‘The Industrial Strategy due in the Spring has the potential to boost business growth for the long-term. Companies are also eager to see Government plans on business rates reform, trade and infrastructure.

‘Getting sustained economic growth will only be possible if the environment is right for businesses to invest, recruit and export.’

Internet link: ONS BCC

The UK government has launched a new Industrial Strategy Advisory Council which brings together business leaders from across the UK to offer advice.

The government says the Industrial Strategy will help maintain a pro-business environment to capture a greater share of internationally mobile investment and motivate domestic business to boost their investment and scale up their growth.

It will channel support to sectors and geographical clusters that have the highest growth potential for the next decade, the government adds.

Anna Leach, Chief Economist at the Institute of Directors said:

‘We welcome the launch of the Industrial Strategy Advisory Council which will offer independent advice and recommendations to government as it develops the Industrial Strategy.

‘It’s incredibly important to see the role of businesses in designing and delivering the government’s growth mission given prominence. An industrial strategy which embeds stability and long-termism alongside astutely targeted investments can play an effective role in driving this mission.

‘It is also good to see that the council will have a role in holding the government to account in the effective delivery of industrial strategy through data, analysis and reporting. We look forward to engaging with the new council in creating the conditions for businesses to thrive in the UK.’

Internet link: GOV.UK IoD

HMRC is reminding people who pay tax by self assessment of the opportunity to spread the cost of their bill with the Time to Pay facility.

More than 15,000 self assessment customers have already set up a Time to Pay payment plan for the 2023/24 tax year to help spread the cost, according to the tax authority. And there is still an opportunity to sign up for such an arrangement.

HMRC says it offers these payment plans to support taxpayers unable to pay their tax bill in full and looking to manage their tax payments over regular monthly instalments.

The online deadline to file a tax return for the 2023/24 tax year and pay any tax owed is 31 January 2025.

Taxpayers who are unable to pay their tax bill in full, owe less than £30,000 and are eligible, can quickly and easily apply online without the need to contact HMRC directly. Those that owe more than £30,000 are still able to apply but would need to contact HMRC.

Myrtle Lloyd, HMRC’s Director General for Customer Services, said:

‘We’re here to help customers get their tax right and if you are worried about how to pay your self assessment bill, help and support is available.

‘Customers can set up their online payment plan to suit their own financial circumstances and can spread those payments across a maximum of 12 months. It is a valuable option for someone needing extra flexibility in meeting their tax obligations.’

Internet link: GOV.UK

HMRC is warning of scam attempts targeting self assessment taxpayers in the run up to the 31 January deadline.

Last year, concerned taxpayers reported nearly 150,000 scam referrals to HMRC.

Around half of all scam reports in the last year were fake tax rebate claims, says the tax authority.

There has been a 16.7% increase in all scam referrals to HMRC – 144,298 were received between November 2023 and October 2024, up from 123,596 in the previous 12-month period, it added.

If communication claiming to be from HMRC asks for personal information or offers a tax rebate, check the advice on GOV.UK to help identify if it is scam activity.

HMRC says it will never leave voicemails threatening legal action or arrest or ask for personal or financial information over text message – only fraudsters and criminals will do that.

Kelly Paterson, Chief Security Officer at HMRC, said:

‘With millions of people filing their self assessment return before January’s deadline, we’re warning everyone to be wary of emails promising tax refunds.

‘Being vigilant helps you spot potential scams. And reporting anything suspicious helps us stop criminal activity and to protect you and others who could have received similar bogus communication.

‘Our advice remains unchanged. Don’t rush into anything, take your time and check ‘HMRC scams advice’ on GOV.UK.’

Internet link: GOV.UK HMRC

The extra costs of the increase in employers’ NICs could cause businesses to respond in ways the government did not intend, the Chartered Institute of Taxation (CIOT) has warned.

At the Autumn Budget, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced an increase to the rate of employer NICs by 1.2 percentage points, to 15% from 6 April 2025.

The CIOT says that the increase extends the differential in the burden of tax and NICs borne by those in employment compared to those engaged as self-employed.

The higher employers’ NICs goes, the greater the likelihood employers may seek ways to mitigate or absorb the burden, which could include potential alternative arrangements to taking on people as employees, adds the CIOT. Alternatives could include outsourcing or offshoring services and reducing the numbers of employees.

Eleanor Meredith, Chair of CIOT’s Employment Taxes Committee, said:

‘While employers must pay employer NICs on their employees’ earnings, no employer NICs is due where someone is genuinely self-employed.

‘We are concerned that the increase in employers’ NICs could lead to an increase in ‘false self-employment’, where businesses trying to save money turn to arrangements where the worker is not directly employed by them, without necessarily appreciating the rules and risks of such arrangements.

‘A worker’s employment status for tax is notoriously difficult to judge, as we have seen from recent complex litigation involving some TV presenters. HMRC will need to be sufficiently resourced to tackle potential increases in ‘false self-employment’.’

Internet link: CIOT