Less than 30% of firms expect their workforce to fully return to the workplace over the next five years, according to research by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC).

The survey of over 1,000 businesses found just 27% of respondents predict their employees will be fully physically present in the workplace over the next five years. In addition, 47% anticipate their staff will be mostly in-person, 16% expect mostly remote and 8% fully remote.

The research found a clear divide between different sectors. Only 17% of B2B services organisations expect fully in-person working, while the figure for manufacturers is 38% and B2C services 37%.

Jane Gratton, Deputy Director of Public Policy at the BCC, said:

‘Our data shows that hybrid working is now part of the fabric of the modern workplace. This flexibility is valued by employers and their teams. Less than 30% of firms expect staff to be working fully in-person over the next five years.

‘Flexible working makes good business sense. In a tight labour market where employers are competing for skilled workers, hybrid working and flexible working more generally have become important parts of staff benefit packages.’

Internet link: BCC website

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will deliver the 2024 Spring Budget on 6 March, the government has confirmed.

The Budget will include the government’s tax and spending plans as well as new growth and borrowing forecasts.

It could be the last chance for the government to announce significant changes to tax policy before the general election.

The Chancellor used his last big fiscal speech, the Autumn Statement, to extend tax breaks for business and cut National Insurance contributions (NICs).

The Office for Budget Responsibility has been formally commissioned to publish economic forecasts on 6 March.

Internet link: GOV.UK

The UK is at risk of recession after revised figures showed the economy shrank between July and September, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Gross domestic product, which measures the health of the economy, contracted by 0.1% after previous estimates suggested growth has been flat.

Meanwhile, there was zero growth between April and June, after it was first calculated to have risen by 0.2%.

A recession is typically defined as when the economy shrinks for two three-month periods – or quarters – in a row.

Meanwhile, the UK’s inflation rate fell to 3.9% in the year to November, the ONS confirmed.

The fall was bigger than the ONS had anticipated with lower petrol prices contributing to the reduction in the inflation rate.

Price increases for bread and cakes are also easing, according to the ONS.

David Bharier, Head of Research at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), said:

‘Today’s data showing the CPI rate grew at 3.9% in November, a greater slowdown than expected, is welcome confirmation that the headline rate of inflation is continuing to ease. However, prices are still rising from a very high base following multiple economic shocks and core CPI remains stubborn at 5.1%.

‘Persistent inflation and high interest rates are likely to remain a barrier to business growth for some time to come. Businesses are desperate for a clear, long-term plan for growth which sets out a vision for infrastructure, skills and green innovation.’

The fall in inflation followed the Bank of England’s decision to hold interest rates at 5.25%, marking the third time in a row that the Bank has left the rate unchanged.

Bharier said:

‘While a cut in the interest rate could have provided some relief for firms ahead of Christmas, [the] decision to hold at 5.25% was expected and allays fears of further rises.

‘UK businesses have been faced with the twin shock of an inflation crisis and increased borrowing costs.

‘The BCC’s latest Economic Forecast expects only a 0.25% point cut in the interest rate for the whole of 2024, although businesses need to be prepared for any unexpected changes given the uncertain policy landscape.’

Internet link: ONS website ONS website BCC website Bank of England website BCC website

HMRC recently updated its guidance on off payroll working compliance for employers.

The new guidance sets out ‘practical steps’ for organisations to follow. It affects employers who are responsible for operating off payroll working rules and who engage workers who provide their services through their own intermediary.

The guidance states that organisations should apply the new guidelines to ‘reflect the complexity and scale of their own off payroll working engagements‘. It said that the guidelines should be used to ‘help make informed decisions based on individual circumstances’.

The guidance also outlines a change in policy that could affect organisations with an open compliance check as part of the reformed IR35 rules. This was initially announced at the Autumn Statement on 22 November last year.

From 6 April 2024, HMRC will take into account the taxes a worker or their intermediary have already paid against the amount the deemed employer owes. This change applies to income tax and National Insurance contributions (NICs) assessed by HMRC on or after 6 April 2024 from off-payroll working errors in payments since 6 April 2017.

Internet links: GOV.UK

The changes to National Insurance contributions (NICs) announced by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt in the Autumn Statement will help to ‘ease the burden on strivers up and down the country‘, according to the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB).

Mr Hunt used his Autumn Statement speech to cut the main rate of employee NICs from 12% to 10% for 27 million workers across the UK. This is set to take effect from 6 January 2024. The Chancellor said that, for the average employee earning £35,400 per year, the change amounts to a £450 annual tax cut. 

For the self-employed, the Chancellor also abolished Class 2 NICs and cut Class 4 NICs from 9% to 8%, effective from 6 April 2024.

Tina McKenzie, Policy Chair at the FSB, said:

‘The Chancellor’s decision to reduce the rate of self-employed NICs and abolish the Class 2 element is extremely welcome, easing the burden on strivers up and down the country.

‘The FSB has long campaigned for the abolition of the Class 2 element of NICs and the reduction of Class 4, and we are therefore pleased that the Chancellor has acted.’

Internet link: GOV.UK FSB website